[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6225 ]

2026-05-19T09:04:08Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 44% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

House holds off on prediction market ban despite bipartisan calls for prohibition

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0025
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4375
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYcrypto_prices
HOURS TO CLOSE307.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6225 ]