[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6223 ]

2026-05-19T09:03:48Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

House holds off on prediction market ban despite bipartisan calls for prohibition

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0030
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE285.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6223 ]