[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6209 ]

2026-05-19T07:56:40Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
YES · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Indian shares rise after Trump signals possible nuclear deal with Iran http:// reut.rs/3Riffrs

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3250
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE280.3h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 75%
S YES · 100% · n=2

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6209 ]