[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6197 ]

2026-05-19T07:25:37Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Middle East crisis live: Trump claims Iran attack ‘on hold’ due to request from Gulf allies

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0025
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE286.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6197 ]