[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6154 ]

2026-05-18T22:59:09Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 44% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

President Trump said that he’d called off a strike on Iran planned for Tuesday after an appeal by the leaders of Persian Gulf allies, who ca

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Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0610
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4375
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE289.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6154 ]