[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6127 ]

2026-05-18T20:36:17Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says he paused attack on Iran as negotiations continue http:// reut.rs/4tSMFuw

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1450
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE291.8h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 75%
S YES · 100% · n=1

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6127 ]