[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6106 ]

2026-05-18T19:21:57Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

BREAKING: President Trump says he's called off an Iran strike planned for Tuesday at the request of Gulf allies to allow for "serious negoti

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Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0650
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE292.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=29

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6106 ]