[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6078 ]

2026-05-18T17:09:29Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 74% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

CENTCOM: “CENTCOM continues to strictly enforce the U.S. blockade against Iranian ports. U.S. forces have now redirected 85 commercial vesse

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Market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0145
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7386
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE295.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 82% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6078 ]