[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5975 ]

2026-05-18T08:13:51Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

European natural-gas prices broke above 50 euros a megawatt-hour as traders see little sign of a resolution in the Middle East.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0375`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6438`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`trump_direct`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`303.8h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 70%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0550`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.36`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-19T08:13:52Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5975 ]