[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5932 ]

2026-05-18T03:53:06Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Bitcoin slides under $77,000 as oil shock and Treasury yields hit risk assets

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0445`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6562`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`308.3h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 75%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0530`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.18`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-19T03:53:07Z`

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5932 ]