[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5901 ]

2026-05-17T19:25:13Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

UPDATE: Aviation sources say both crews safely ejected after two U.S. fighter jets collided mid-air during an incident at Mountain Home Air

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3100
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE148.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5901 ]