[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5888 ]

2026-05-17T16:48:50Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

TRUMP: For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE! Pr

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Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0750
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE319.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5888 ]