[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5869 ]

2026-05-17T15:10:47Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 18% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trade rep tries to walk back Trump's remarks on arms for Taiwan

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0845
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.1765
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE44.8h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 88% · n=17

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5869 ]