[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5865 ]

2026-05-17T14:44:06Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

President Trump's top trade envoy said Sunday that the U.S. president exacted a commitment from the Chinese to not "provide material support

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0450`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6450`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`321.3h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 72%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0650`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.42`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-18T14:44:06Z`

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5865 ]