[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5860 ]

2026-05-17T13:53:28Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 79% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

BREAKING: Reports suggest British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may be preparing to resign as a deepening internal crisis grips the Labour Par

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0965
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7875
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE46.3h

Jury split

L YES · 75%
Q YES · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5860 ]