[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5858 ]

2026-05-17T13:53:03Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

President Trump's top trade envoy said Sunday that the U.S. president exacted a commitment from the Chinese to not "provide material support

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE322.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ WRONG ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0650
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L$-0.42
RESOLVED AT2026-05-18T13:53:04Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5858 ]