[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5849 ]

2026-05-17T12:34:04Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Thames Water investors say temporary nationalisation would slow its recovery

Market

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.1010`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.7188`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`47.8h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 70%
`Q`	NO · 75%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0330`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$1.51`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-18T12:34:05Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5849 ]