[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5849 ]

2026-05-17T12:34:04Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Thames Water investors say temporary nationalisation would slow its recovery

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1010
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE47.8h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ CORRECT ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0330
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L+$1.51
RESOLVED AT2026-05-18T12:34:05Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5849 ]