[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5845 ]

2026-05-17T12:09:34Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

AI backlash becomes a real business risk

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0010
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE324.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ CORRECT ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0005
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L+$0.01
RESOLVED AT2026-05-18T12:09:35Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5845 ]