[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5832 ]

2026-05-17T10:11:39Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Epstein, Iran and AI slop: inside the wild Trump vs Massie fight in Kentucky

ft · ↗ original article

Market

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0045
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE325.8h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5832 ]