[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5823 ]

2026-05-17T09:00:07Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Al Jazeera reports from Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s plan to manage shipping

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0535
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7300
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE327.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 60%
S NO · 100% · n=29

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5823 ]