[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5819 ]

2026-05-17T08:11:57Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Large-scale Ukrainian drone attack kills three in Moscow region, says Russia

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0085
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6550
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE327.8h

Jury split

L NO · 58%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5819 ]