[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5811 ]

2026-05-17T08:04:27Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Regulators are seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket over wagers tied to political events and military operations.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0010
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE328.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5811 ]