[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5808 ]

2026-05-17T08:01:11Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 17% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

A Russian stablecoin built to dodge sanctions says it can survive even if they're lifted

coindesk · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0950
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.1692
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE328.3h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 85% · n=13

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5808 ]