[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5784 ]

2026-05-16T22:13:32Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 17% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Thousands of teachers march in Lisbon over pay, careers http:// reut.rs/4nvv8GV

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0525
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.1714
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE25.8h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 86% · n=14

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5784 ]