[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5781 ]

2026-05-16T11:35:50Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 47% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

ISIS second-in-command Abu-Bilal al-Minuki killed by US and Nigerian forces, presidents say http:// reut.rs/4eQAzOC

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4714
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE36.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 86% · n=14

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5781 ]