[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5780 ]

2026-05-16T11:23:07Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Elephants eat their crops. Farmers strike back. It's a war that's only getting worse

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0450
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE36.8h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S YES · 100% · n=1

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5780 ]