[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5779 ]

2026-05-16T11:08:51Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 70% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israel says it killed Hamas' most senior military leader in Gaza strike. https:// cnn.it/49xDZCg

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6950
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE37.3h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 90% · n=20

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5779 ]