[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5755 ]

2026-05-15T13:18:43Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

President Trump departed China after a two-day trip, touting what he called “fantastic” trade deals while the war with Iran continued to loo

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0030
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7850
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE34.8h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 95%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5755 ]