[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5749 ]

2026-05-15T11:51:40Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

SCOTUS upholds abortion pill telehealth access. And, Trump returns from China visit

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0035
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7312
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE36.3h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 95%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5749 ]