[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5741 ]

2026-05-15T08:51:32Z · 방법론: /methodology

NO · 73% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Morning news brief

Market

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0020`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.7312`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`trump_direct`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`39.3h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 95%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ WRONG ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0125`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`$-0.21`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-16T08:51:33Z`

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5741 ]