[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5696 ]

2026-05-14T11:24:01Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have been largely positive, though the future of Taiwan threatens to s

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Market

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0190
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE60.9h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5696 ]