[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5695 ]

2026-05-14T11:05:30Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 76% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Xi warns Trump over Taiwan, says differences could lead to clash

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0180
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE61.4h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5695 ]