[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5693 ]

2026-05-14T10:30:01Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 36% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is unleashing the force of his political movement to oust two-term Republican US Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s R

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.6650
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3625
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE109.9h

Jury split

L NO · 58%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5693 ]