[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5652 ]

2026-05-13T18:27:29Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 68% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Three Republican senators broke with their party over President Donald Trump’s handling of the war with Iran

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0075
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6800
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE29.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 60%
S NO · 100% · n=14

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5652 ]