[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5648 ]

2026-05-13T17:32:02Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 69% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Six from hantavirus cruise ship leave Arrowe Park hospital to isolate at home

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2750
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6937
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE30.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5648 ]