[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5643 ]

2026-05-13T16:02:40Z · 방법론: /methodology

[ ← 이전 ] [ 목록으로 ] [ 다음 → ]
NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

TUI sees strong holiday bookings despite Iran war, sticks to outlook http:// reut.rs/4wr0MJF

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0155
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE32.4h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 이전 ] [ 목록으로 ] [ 다음 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5643 ]