[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5619 ]

2026-05-13T12:54:52Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israeli attacks on Gaza increased by 35% since Iran ceasefire: Report

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.4300
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE35.4h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5619 ]