[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5476 ]

2026-05-12T21:19:36Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 68% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump downplays US-Iran differences as he heads to Beijing to meet with Xi

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0025
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6800
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE51.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 60%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5476 ]