[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5434 ]

2026-05-12T18:10:29Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump posts late-night social media spree as Iran war drags on

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3140
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE70.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5434 ]