[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5429 ]

2026-05-12T17:59:27Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 67% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

No sign of larger hantavirus outbreak, says UN health agency

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3100
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6687
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE54.0h

Jury split

L NO · 62%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5429 ]