[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5415 ]

2026-05-12T16:56:53Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Live markets: What's next as bitcoin holds $80,000, while stocks sink, yields rise on ugly inflation print

coindesk · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0035
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE55.1h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=9

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5415 ]