[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5405 ]

2026-05-12T16:41:54Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 16% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says Cuba is seeking help, will hold talks http:// reut.rs/42rqqk3

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0225
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.1600
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE55.7h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 80% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5405 ]