Two individuals were removed from a Senate Appropriations hearing as War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine were questioned on milita
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0180 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6562 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 56.8h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5347 ]