[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5310 ]

2026-05-12T14:07:26Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US consumer prices continued their rapid ascent in April as the war in Iran pressured global fuel costs. http:// yhoo.it/4tuLSj4

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0095
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE74.1h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S YES · 100% · n=2

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5310 ]