[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5282 ]

2026-05-12T10:27:36Z · 方法论: /methodology

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YES · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: World Health Organization’s Tedros says that he "expects more cases" of Hantavirus to be announced soon.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.7450
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE61.6h

Jury split

L YES · 72%
Q YES · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5282 ]