[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5221 ]

2026-05-11T19:16:02Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

BREAKING: Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats in Senate midterm odds and are now heavily favored to retain power in 2026.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.6250
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE77.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5221 ]