[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5212 ]

2026-05-11T16:18:51Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says ceasefire with Iran is on "massive life support" after he rejects Tehran's peace proposal amid escalating tensions in the Strait

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Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0650
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE80.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5212 ]