[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5190 ]

2026-05-11T13:25:45Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

China’s central bank warned of imported inflation risks from higher oil and commodity prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0065
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE82.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5190 ]