[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-5173 ]

2026-05-11T11:15:55Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 71% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The reputation of the Strait of Hormuz as a reliable artery for global energy trade may be permanently damaged by its prolonged closure, IEA

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0650
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7075
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE85.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-5173 ]